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The world is heating up, which is bad news for coffee.
Coffee thrives within a stable temperature range, which for arabica is between 64°-70°F (18°-21°C). However, a new analysis has found that the majority of producing regions are facing dozens of extra days with temperatures well above that range. Driven by climate change, these extra hot days could put coffee production at risk.
The analysis was conducted by Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and science communicators, and published on Feb. 18. Looking at 25 coffee-growing countries, the group found that on average each country had 47 extra days each year of “coffee-harming heat.” This is where temperatures exceed 30°C (86°F), the threshold considered harmful to coffee plants. Extreme heat can reduce yields and bean quality, stunt tree growth, and increase vulnerability to pests and disease.
These additional days would not have occurred without fossil fuel pollution, Climate Central wrote in a press release.
To conduct the analysis, the group examined temperatures from 2021 to 2025 and compared them with those in a hypothetical world without carbon pollution. Between them, Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia experienced 57 extra days of coffee-harming heat that would not have happened without carbon pollution.
These five countries grow 75% of the world’s coffee. Other countries fared even worse: El Salvador saw 99 extra days, Nicaragua 77, and Thailand 75.
“Nearly every major coffee-producing country is now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can harm coffee plants, reduce yields, and affect quality,” said Dr. Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s vice president for science, in the press release. “With this analysis, we looked just at coffee crops, but climate change is hitting other crops and farmers everywhere, with ripple effects on food prices and livelihoods.”
Read more on the climate change-driven heating from The Guardian here.
Photo by Shelby Murphy Figueroa on Unsplash
