The USDA predicts record global coffee harvests. Plus, higher prices might be encouraging customers to buy less but pay more for beans, and coffee is good for your heart—just keep it to five cups a day.
‘USDA: Global Coffee Production, Consumption to Reach Record Levels’
Despite news of unforeseen rain harming Brazil’s harvest, and the potential for a strong El Niño to disrupt weather patterns worldwide, the United States Department of Agriculture predicts we’ll have a record global coffee harvest.
In a report published on July 22, the USDA forecast that coffee farms globally will yield 189.7 million 60kg bags, a 6% increase from the harvest season before. Numbers are up primarily because of potentially record harvests in Brazil, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Uganda, which will compensate for predicted losses in India and Indonesia.
The report forecasts a rise in global consumption as well. Coffee drinkers are expected to consume 179.7 million bags, 3.6% more than last year. Consumption in China is predicted to increase 5.1%, while U.S. consumption will rise 5.7% and domestic consumption in Brazil and Ethiopia will also go up.
The USDA report notes that commodity coffee prices fell 25% over the first seven months of the year—market prices dropped again when the report was released on Wednesday. According to the financial portal and news site Barchart, the arabica futures market closed 2.3% lower on Thursday, the day after the report’s publication.
Read the USDA global coffee report here.
‘New Report Highlights the Importance of Regenerative Agriculture for Living Incomes in Coffee’
Last year, TechnoServe released a report that found investing in regenerative agriculture could boost smallholder farmer income and reduce carbon emissions. In a new companion paper, published on July 9, the nonprofit worked with Sustainable Food Lab to add what they call a “living income lens” to that research.
Regenerative agriculture is an increasingly popular approach to coffee production. It has become a catch-all term for a range of sustainable farming practices, which can include utilizing shade trees and cover crops or restoring degraded soil and water systems.
Building on Technoserve’s initial findings, the new report added a living income analysis which “helps translate projected income gains into a clearer picture of household well-being,” the report authors wrote. Basically, can regenerative farming practices help farmers reach living income benchmarks within the context of specific countries and circumstances.
The report defines living income as “the earnings required to afford a decent standard of living in a given locale.” It focuses on seven coffee-producing countries: Honduras, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Peru, and Indonesia. The baseline earnings for the typical coffee-farming household in each country currently fall short of a living income, the report found.
Transitioning to regenerative agriculture practices can “meaningfully change that picture,” Sustainable Food Lab’s program manager Molly Leavens wrote in an announcement blog post. However, she continued, “the story varies by country.”
In its 2025 report, TechnoServe outlined a ten-part framework for regenerative coffee farming. This included renovation and replacement of aging coffee trees; soil conservation and cover cropping; preventative and environmentally friendly weed, pest, and nutrition management; and protection and management of water sources and wastewater.
Adopting the recommended regenerative practices would allow the average farmer in Ethiopia and Vietnam to achieve a living income, the report found. In contrast, farmers in Honduras and Kenya could close the gap significantly. However, even if they adopted more regenerative practices, farmers in Uganda, Peru, and Indonesia would reach only half the living income standard. The report attributes this to small farm size, low productivity, and/or high production costs.
Closing the gap and helping more farmers transition to regenerative practices requires action from across the supply chain. “What farmers are paid, and how they receive payment, are critical determinants for achieving a living income,” the report states. Other support should include technical assistance and both public and private financing to help farmers offset the loss of coffee income that can occur in the first two years of transition due to renovated plots and upfront investment costs.
The authors also note that some households with very small landholdings won’t be able to achieve a living income through coffee alone. For these households, off-farm income opportunities and subsidies will be key.
The report concludes with a call to action, urging the coffee industry to collaborate on a regenerative transition while placing farmer incomes at the heart of any plan. “Achieving a living income at scale requires coordinated, sector-wide action across agricultural value chains,” the authors wrote.
Read more on regenerative coffee farming and living income here.
‘Coffee Drinkers Turning to Whole Beans As Prices Soar, Says Lavazza’ – via Financial Times
Coffee is getting expensive—you might have noticed if you read this newsletter—and some consumers are looking for ways to cut costs. For example, low-cost drive-thru chains like Dutch Bros. and 7 Brew have soared in popularity, taking a bite out of Starbucks’ market share.
Other consumers are buying more whole bean coffee and brewing at home. According to Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of the Italian roasting giant Lavazza, this points to an interest in higher-quality coffee. “Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but better,” Lavazza told the Financial Times’ Susannah Savage.
To back up his theory, Lavazza pointed to a rise in whole bean sales compared to ground or instant coffee, as well as increasing sales of bean-to-cup machines. “People are looking for better experiences, even at home,” he said. Consumer data from Nielsen backs this up: in the first half of 2026, Savage reports, U.K. whole bean coffee sales rose nearly 37%. In France, whole bean sales rose 35% and in Germany 31%. In the U.K., bean-to-cup machine sales increased 33.5%.
It’s the same story in the U.S., but less extreme: whole bean sales rose 3.2% in the 12 months to June 27, while pod and ground coffee sales declined. Lavazza called this rise in whole bean sales the coffee industry’s “most important trend … People are looking for beans and they enjoy maybe to replicate at home the experience of the coffee shop.”
Read more on Lavazza’s less-but-more theory here or via the Irish Times here.
More News
‘Regionals Return For The 2027 US Coffee Championships Season’ via Sprudge
‘EUDR Provides Massive Challenge to the Vital Honduras Coffee Sector’ via Daily Coffee News
‘Rejoice! Pope Leo Loves Drinking Coffee (And He Likes It Strong)’ via Sprudge
‘Vietnam’s Domestic Coffee Demand Is Becoming a Market Force via StoneX
‘How South Indian Filter Coffee Became One of America’s Most Exciting Coffee Trends’ – via Food & Wine
Is Coffee Good For You?
The American Heart Association (AHA) has published a new report saying that up to five cups of coffee per day is safe for most adults, and might lower your risk of heart disease. Energy drinks, on the other hand, not so much.
Published last week in the association’s flagship peer-reviewed journal Circulation, the scientific statement reviews the latest research on caffeine and heart health. Upwards of 400 mg of caffeine per day (around five 8-ounce cups of caffeinated coffee) is safe, the association concluded, and may be associated with lower risk of heart failure, heart disease, and stroke in some people.
As Yonathan Daniel reports for ABC News, the latest guidance is notable for distinguishing between coffee and other sources of caffeine such as energy drinks. Although limited, the AHA says data on energy drinks “generally suggest cardiovascular harm.” Very high doses of caffeine, such as in the energy shots found at gas station checkouts, can spike blood pressure and trigger irregular heart rhythms.
Another important caveat to the association’s statement on coffee is brew method. Coffee prepared without a paper filter—French press, espresso, Turkish coffee, for example—retains cafestol, a lipid or fatty compound found in coffee. Paper filters trap compounds like cafestol, which is associated with higher levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), also known as “bad” cholesterol. LDL can clog arteries and raise the risk of cardiovascular disease over time.
There has been a lot of research done on the connection between coffee and heart health over the years, and the results have been mixed. The AHA’s statement notes that more research is needed to disentangle the impact of caffeine from coffee’s other compounds such as polyphenols.
The authors also urge caution, noting that people’s reaction to caffeine can vary widely. “Although research suggests that caffeine consumption may be associated with certain cardiovascular benefits for some people, it’s important to remember that there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy for safe caffeine consumption,” said Gregory M. Marcus, chair of the statement writing group and a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine, in a press release.
Beyond the Headlines
‘The Maverick Scientist Trying To Save Coffee From Extinction’ by Tomas Weber
