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On July 6, the C price jumped 16% in a single day, climbing nearly 50 cents per pound to $3.50. It was the largest one-day gain in more than 25 years, and was followed by a near-10% fall the next day. The exact cause of the jump has eluded analysts and experts.
The coffee futures market rises and falls all the time. The C-market price reached record highs in 2024 and 2025, mostly due to erratic weather patterns, lower production, and geopolitical turmoil. This year, however, the price began to fall because tariffs—one of the reasons prices rose in 2025—were repealed, and analysts predicted a large harvest in Brazil and a subsequent increase in supply.
In June, news of potential delays to the Brazilian harvest pushed prices back up. Other reasons for the rise include reports that rainfall is affecting harvest quality, as well as fears of a potentially strong El Niño weather pattern. But last week’s yo-yo-ing was unexpected.
“Coffee futures have officially entered meme-stock territory,” analysts at trader StoneX wrote in a report. Meme stocks are stocks that go viral and rise or fall based on speculation and, frankly, vibes (one example came in 2021, when Reddit users boosted GameStop stock to nearly 30 times its original value in less than a month). Weather concerns alone couldn’t account for the volatility, StoneX wrote.
Other experts agreed, and many pointed to hedge funds and other speculators as possible reasons. A Sucafina trader interviewed by Bloomberg noted a “huge allocation of assets away from energy markets” and into both coffee and cocoa futures on July 6. “The fundamentals created the conditions for this reaction in coffee prices, but it was the flow of capital that drove this movement,” Brazilian analyst Gustavo Matias told Notícias Agrícolas.
Big, erratic swings may be a new reality in the coffee industry, according to Lavazza chairman Giuseppe Lavazza. “I think we are living in a long-lasting period of instability and uncertainty,” he told Bloomberg. “Instability is the new constant.”
Read more on the coffee price rollercoaster from Global Coffee Report here.
Photo by Nicholas Cappello on Unsplash
