Tariffs might be gone, but your latte likely isn’t getting any cheaper. Plus, a group of prominent Ethiopians launches a new coffee association, and Blue Bottle Coffee workers go on strike.
‘High Coffee Prices Are Here to Stay for Longer Despite US Tariff Cuts’ – via Bloomberg
The day after U.S. President Donald Trump cut tariffs on imports from Brazil, coffee prices plunged. Arabica futures sank to two-month lows, Reuters reported, while robusta futures fell more than 10%.
But that doesn’t mean prices at the supermarket and cafe have come down yet—and they may not come down at all. In fact, they might keep rising.
That’s because retail prices have yet to catch up with the recent volatility in the coffee market (partially due to tariffs but also due to weather fluctuations and coffee shortages). Illycaffè CEO Cristina Scocchia said the Italian roasting giant plans to raise prices again in January, following an 8-10% price hike in 2025. “There is a limit to how much a company can absorb a level of green coffee price, which is so unhealthily high,” Scocchia told Bloomberg’s Mumbi Gitau.
Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank, told Gitau that other major roasters will likely follow suit. Also, retail prices are prone to stick, even when the market cools off—as Cornell professor Alex Susskind told CNN in November, once retail prices go up, they tend not to come down.
Another reason some prices might remain high is that Brazilian instant coffee wasn’t granted a tariff exemption. The U.S. buys 20% of Brazil’s instant coffee exports, and suppliers worry that high costs will eat into their market share. “Once that market share and consumer loyalty are lost, future recovery will be an extremely difficult mission,” the Brazilian Instant Coffee Association said in a statement.
However, at least one major company is freezing its prices. J.M. Smucker, which sells Folgers among other brands, said it would absorb cost increases for now. The company has already raised prices twice this year.
Read more on the state of coffee prices here or via Yahoo! Finance here.
‘International Researchers Allege Widespread Errors in Smallholder Coffee Mapping, Offer Dataset’ – via Daily Coffee News
The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), now delayed by a year, was designed to keep items linked to deforestation out of the bloc. To make sure that the coffee they buy isn’t connected to deforestation, importers rely on software that accurately maps a farm’s location and tracks changes in land use.
However, the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT says that current databases used by map-making organizations have been misclassifying many coffee-growing regions as being “high risk” for deforestation. This leaves farmers vulnerable to being passed over by potential clients seeking coffee compliant with the new law.
To counter this, the Alliance has launched a new mapping database, Sample Earth, that aims to provide mapmakers with better data to build “accurate, inclusive maps.”
To create reference maps, data scientists train artificial intelligence systems using vast databases of satellite imagery and other land-use data. However, according to the Alliance, the databases often ignore rural regions, making the maps less accurate.
“Most maps are not accurate at local scales because the data is biased toward regions with a lot of training data,” Thibaud Vantalon from the Alliance’s Digital Inclusion research area said in a press release. “Remote regions are very poorly mapped,” Vantalon said.
The European Commission defines deforestation as “the conversion of forest to agricultural use.” According to the EC, assessing whether a commodity contributed to deforestation means “looking backwards in time to see if the crop land was a ‘Forest’ at any time since” December 2020.
If a coffee-growing region is misclassified as “forest,” it would be considered deforested under the EUDR. Buyers using the reference map could then ignore whole areas rather than chance buying coffee from misclassified farms.
So far, the open-access dataset includes about 100,000 geolocation points in Ghana and Vietnam, two of the world’s largest producers of coffee and cocoa. The creators aim to add additional countries in the future.
Inaccurate data can have a big impact. According to research by the Alliance, a map published last year by the European Union classifies more than half the coffee-producing areas in Colombia, China, Guatemala, and Mexico as forest.
Critics of the EUDR have said the legislation potentially excludes smallholder farmers for whom the costs of compliance are too high. Faulty data adds to this exclusion: “Maps are needed for due diligence, and buyers will likely steer clear of areas misclassified as ‘high risk’ for deforestation,” said Louis Reymondin, a data scientist at the Alliance.
Read the full story on the coffee mapping confusion here.
‘Ethiopia Launches Its Own Specialty Coffee Association’ – via Global Coffee Report
The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) is the industry’s global trade organization, but many countries have national organizations that aim to promote their own coffee. The Specialty Coffee Association of Panama, for example, has made great strides in making Panama’s gesha variety one of the most expensive and sought-after coffees in the world.
Now, a group of green coffee professionals in Ethiopia is aiming for similar success, announcing the launch of the Specialty Coffee Association of Ethiopia (SCAE) on Nov. 25.
Not affiliated with the SCA, the SCAE was founded by Ashenagi Argaw, founder of exporting company Ardent Coffee; Faysel Abdoshi of producer and exporter Testi Coffee; Kenean Assefa, an executive at Daye Bensa Coffee; and 2021 Ethiopia Cup of Excellence winner Tamiru Tadesse.
“Our goal is simple but ambitious,” Argaw, the association’s inaugural president, said in an announcement. “We want to showcase the best of Ethiopian specialty coffee, strengthen traceability and quality standards, and provide a platform for our producers to be recognised globally.”
One of the SCAE’s first initiatives will be a Best of Ethiopia program, a competition and auction modeled on similar events in other countries. Like the recent Best of Panama auction, the highest-quality Ethiopian coffees have earned record prices.
In September, Tadesse sold a five-kilo lot for $1739 per kg at auction, breaking a record set just a few months earlier in February. Coffee exports and earnings have also soared over the past year: the Ethiopian government recently announced that the country exported a record 470,000 tons of coffee during the fiscal year ending Jul. 7, bringing in more than $2.6 billion.
Read more on Ethiopia’s new coffee association here.
More News
‘Gangs Target Colombia Coffee Region Prized by Starbucks, Nestle’ – via Bloomberg
‘Vietnam and Ghana Join Innovea Global Breeding Network’ – via Global Coffee Report
‘Fairtrade Plans Major Standards Overhaul for Coffee and Other Crops’ – via Daily Coffee News
‘High Coffee Prices Are Here to Stay for Longer Despite US Tariff Cuts’ – via Bloomberg
‘Morocco To Lead African Coffee Export “Revolution”’ – via Global Coffee Report
‘Uganda’s Coffee Industry Signs Major Deal With China’s Cotti Coffee’ – via Tea & Coffee Trade Journal
The Week in Coffee Unionizing
Unionized baristas at six Blue Bottle Coffee locations in Boston and three in California’s East Bay went on strike over the holiday weekend. Workers were attempting to put pressure on the Nestlé-owned company to finalize a union contract after a year of fruitless negotiations.
The Blue Bottle Independent Union, which represents 120 workers on both coasts, accused the company of delaying the bargaining process and firing organizers. According to the union, 92% of workers voted to conduct a four-day strike over Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
“Blue Bottle Coffee operates in some of the most expensive cities in the US, and around the world,” BBIU said in a press release. “With stagnant wages and a refusal to bargain, the baristas have decided it’s time to take action.”
Blue Bottle has fired multiple union members and organizers in recent weeks. A week before the strike, Abbey Sadow, the union’s treasurer and communications director, was fired for a dress code violation—specifically, she told the Boston Globe, for “wearing green pants.”
In a statement to the Globe, Blue Bottle declined to comment on the accusations that it had terminated organizers. “We remain committed to bargaining in good faith and have responded to all proposals the union has brought forward, including those related to economics,” a company spokesperson said.
Meanwhile, unionized Starbucks workers are still on an open-ended strike. On Black Friday, Starbucks Workers United announced it would expand its strike from 65 stores and 1,000 workers to more than 120 stores in 85 cities.
The strike, which started on Nov. 13 and now involves 2,500 workers, could become the longest walkout in the company’s history. “Regardless of the union’s plans, we do not anticipate any meaningful disruption. When the union is ready to return to the bargaining table, we’re ready to talk,” a Starbucks spokesperson told CNBC.
Last Monday, workers in California rallied outside CEO Brian Niccol’s Newport Beach office to highlight the disparity between Niccol’s pay and those of the company’s rank-and-file. “While [Niccol] made $96 million for 120 days of work and commutes between Newport Beach and HQ in a private jet, baristas like me are struggling to make ends meet,” barista Layne Hernandez said. “It’s time for Starbucks executives to bring forth new proposals that address our demands, so we can all move forward.”
Beyond the Headlines
‘The Fresh Cup 2025 Coffee Gift Guide’ by Ashley Rodriguez (and others)
‘The Rise of Espresso: Inside The NYC Film Premiere’ by Jordan Michelman
