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A new report from Rabobank forecasts that 20% of the land currently used to grow arabica coffee could become unsuitable for farming by 2050 due to climate change.
The report, released on March 30, noted that the 20% loss could vary based on region. Some countries, like Brazil, Colombia, and Honduras, could lose suitable land, while Ethiopia might actually gain arable land.
The report’s authors calculated suitability based on coffee’s ideal growing conditions and compared them with variables such as temperature, precipitation, and soil quality. They then quantified how those variables could shift under different climate-driven scenarios.
Honduras could see suitable land for arabica production fall to just 12% of its current total. Ethiopia, on the other hand, could see a sizable increase. Right now, 8% of current growing areas are already unsuitable, the report found, requiring higher investment for lower yields.
“Suitability analyses provide a strategic lens – not to forecast exact losses or gains but to help stakeholders anticipate where volatility may increase and where new opportunities may emerge,” the authors wrote. “These insights can guide investment decisions, support proactive planning, and ultimately help build more resilient supply chains.”
Read the report here.
Photo by Shelby Murphy Figueroa on Unsplash
