Commodity coffee prices jumped 19% in one day. Why? Nobody is quite sure. Plus, Colombia’s coffee fund could be in trouble, and Starbucks is “reassessing” a key climate pledge.
‘Coffee Futures Surge to Five-Month High’ – via Global Coffee Report
On July 6, the C price jumped 16% in a single day, climbing nearly 50 cents per pound to $3.50. It was the largest one-day gain in more than 25 years, and was followed by a near-10% fall the next day. The exact cause of the jump has eluded analysts and experts.
The coffee futures market rises and falls all the time. The C-market price reached record highs in 2024 and 2025, mostly due to erratic weather patterns, lower production, and geopolitical turmoil. This year, however, the price began to fall because tariffs—one of the reasons prices rose in 2025—were repealed, and analysts predicted a large harvest in Brazil and a subsequent increase in supply.
In June, news of potential delays to the Brazilian harvest pushed prices back up. Other reasons for the rise include reports that rainfall is affecting harvest quality, as well as fears of a potentially strong El Niño weather pattern. But last week’s yo-yo-ing was unexpected.
“Coffee futures have officially entered meme-stock territory,” analysts at trader StoneX wrote in a report. Meme stocks are stocks that go viral and rise or fall based on speculation and, frankly, vibes (one example came in 2021, when Reddit users boosted GameStop stock to nearly 30 times its original value in less than a month). Weather concerns alone couldn’t account for the volatility, StoneX wrote.
Other experts agreed, and many pointed to hedge funds and other speculators as possible reasons. A Sucafina trader interviewed by Bloomberg noted a “huge allocation of assets away from energy markets” and into both coffee and cocoa futures on July 6. “The fundamentals created the conditions for this reaction in coffee prices, but it was the flow of capital that drove this movement,” Brazilian analyst Gustavo Matias told Notícias Agrícolas.
Big, erratic swings may be a new reality in the coffee industry, according to Lavazza chairman Giuseppe Lavazza. “I think we are living in a long-lasting period of instability and uncertainty,” he told Bloomberg. “Instability is the new constant.”
Read more on the coffee price rollercoaster here.
‘Debate Grows Over Future of Colombia’s National Coffee Fund as Contract Renewal Nears’ – via StoneX
In 1940, the government of Colombia created the National Coffee Fund to support Colombia’s coffee industry. Since its inception, the fund has been administered by the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC). Government-collected taxes bankroll the fund, and the FNC has a contract to run the fund that is renewed every 10 years.
The contract was due to expire on July 7, and as the deadline loomed, some in Colombia’s coffee industry raised concerns over potential government interference in the fund’s activities.
Colombia is in the midst of a fraught presidential election, and Diana Delgado reports for StoneX that the current government has previously raised the prospect of more state oversight of the fund. “The country must understand—and producers must understand—that all contributions they pay are public resources which, under the law, are administered by a private entity,” Agriculture Minister Martha Carvajalino said in May. As Delgado wrote, the implication was that, because it manages public money, the FNC must be more accountable to the government.
The FNC pushed back, with its general manager, Germán Bahamón, writing that the current setup “ensures that coffee-sector resources remain dedicated to coffee growers and are managed by a representative organization of the sector.”
Among other elements, the fund supports Cenicafé, the country’s coffee research center, as well as FNC’s extension services. It also bankrolls a program called the coffee purchase guarantee, in which the FNC will buy any farmer’s coffee at a fixed base price. The fund is financed directly by FNC members through a small levy collected by the government on every pound of coffee exported from the country, and it supports over 500,000 farmers and their families. According to El Colombiano, the fund holds over $300 million.
Bahamón warned that allowing the contract to expire or changing the way the fund is administered would be detrimental to Colombian coffee farmers. He pointed to the purchase guarantee as an example of the fund’s importance, giving farmers a safety net and ensuring immediate payment. “Without that option, growers become exposed to speculation,” Bahamón wrote.
In the end, the FNC and the government agreed to a five-month extension of the contract while negotiations over the fund’s management continue. The extension will also allow the FNC to continue administering money until the next president is decided.
Read more on the future of Colombia’s coffee fund here.
More News
‘Sucafina Announces German Importer Acquisition’ via Global Coffee Report
‘Coffee Generates €84.4 Billion in Direct Value Across the EU, Report Says’ via Daily Coffee News
‘New Study Finds That Your Espresso Shots May Be Caving To Pressure’ – via Sprudge
‘US Coffee Industry Asks Trump To Keep Tariff Exemption on Brazil Beans’ via Reuters
‘Cimbali Group Wins Anti-Counterfeiting Case in China’ via Global Coffee Report
The Week in Corporate Coffeewashing
Starbucks promotes itself as a sustainable coffee company, noting on its website that “our success depends on healthy ecosystems and thriving farming communities.” In 2020, the company announced a commitment to cut carbon emissions and water use in half by 2030 and to become a “resource-positive company, aspiring to give more than it takes from the planet.”
Needless to say, the company received extensive press coverage for these announcements. However, its latest impact report shows that its total emissions have increased since 2020. Now, the coffee giant says it is “actively reassessing” its emissions-reduction goal.
In the report, released on July 1, Starbucks said it was reassessing its goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50%. The coffee giant said it’s looking at “the implications of emerging regulations, ongoing updates to relevant standards, and other developments (including headwinds that impose significant challenges for the achievement of the goal).”
As the report details, Starbucks reduced its Scope 1 and 2 emissions—those it emitted either directly or indirectly through its electricity and gas purchases—by 17% compared to its 2019 baseline. However, Scope 3, which includes indirect supply chain emissions such as shipping and green coffee, rose 8% over the same timeframe.
Because Scope 3 emissions account for 96% of Starbucks’ total carbon footprint, its total emissions have risen 7% since 2019. “We intend to continue to take action designed to manage our greenhouse gas emissions across our operations and supply chains, and to transparently report on our progress,” the company wrote.
Beyond the Headlines
‘Global Coffee Price Volatility Squeezes Mexican Producers’ by Eliza Galeana
‘Little Joy’s Raspberry Danish Latte Went Viral—So It Gave Away the Recipe’ by Haley Greene
‘But First, Coffee: The Drink That Energized the American Revolution’ by James Doubek
